Mechelen head into this fixture in wretched form, failing to win any of their last five league games, while Gent arrive in slightly better shape with just one defeat in that same stretch. The head-to-head record offers Mechelen little comfort either, with no wins in the last three meetings against this opponent. A home side this low on confidence, facing a Gent outfit that has shown some resilience on the road, makes this look tighter than a straightforward home advantage narrative would suggest. The visitors are undervalued here.

The goals data is the most striking element of this preview. Gent's away matches this season have seen BTTS land 65% of the time and over 2.5 goals in 65% of games, well above the league average of 48%. Mechelen's home games also sit above the BTTS league average at 65%. With both defences showing vulnerability and Gent averaging 1.7 goals conceded away, the data suggests this is a game to watch for goals.