Lommel vs Gent — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lommel
23%
Draw
25%
Gent
52%
Expected goals
1.18–1.77
Lommel · Gent
Gent win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (11.0%), 0–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Gent win is 1–2 (11.0%).
Lommel score at least twice in 33%; Gent in 54%.
Scoreline distribution
Gent goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lommel goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Market reference | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Metis Forecast | 23% | 25% | 52% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lommel | 4.13 |
| Draw | 3.74 |
| Gent | 1.84 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Gent
| 3 Sept | H | vs OH Leuven | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Club Brugge | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lommel (Home · no matches) | Gent (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.50 |
Home stats use Lommel's home record; away stats use Gent's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.