Lommel SK vs Mechelen — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 39.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lommel United
45%
top pick
Draw
27%
result
Mechelen
28%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lommel United win. Expected goals 1.58–1.21 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.7%), 2–1 (9.3%), 1–0 (8.8%). It finished 0–0.
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Lommel SK
| 8 Aug | A | vs St Truiden | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Charleroi | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Westerlo | 4–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Club Brugge | 0–1 | L |
Mechelen
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gent | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Standard Liege | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Westerlo | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lommel SK (Home · 5 matches) | Mechelen (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.60 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Lommel SK's home record; away stats use Mechelen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.