Kortrijk vs St. Gilloise — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 22 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kortrijk
11%
Draw
18%
St. Gilloise
71%
Expected goals
0.85–2.31
Kortrijk · St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise win 71% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (11.5%), 1–2 (10.1%), 0–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kortrijk score at least twice in 21%; St. Gilloise in 68%.
Scoreline distribution
St. Gilloise goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 3.4 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kortrijk goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 11% | 20% | 70% |
| Market reference | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| Metis Forecast | 11% | 18% | 71% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Kortrijk
| 7 Aug | A | vs Club Brugge | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Antwerp | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Charleroi | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Waregem | 0–2 | L |
St. Gilloise
| 8 Aug | A | vs Westerlo | 5–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Anderlecht | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs St Truiden | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Charleroi | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kortrijk (Home · 5 matches) | St. Gilloise (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Kortrijk's home record; away stats use St. Gilloise's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.