Kortrijk vs Mechelen — Belgian Pro League forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kortrijk
36%
Draw
27%
Mechelen
37%
Expected goals
1.25–1.33
Kortrijk · Mechelen
Mechelen win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (9.3%), 2–1 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kortrijk score at least twice in 36%; Mechelen in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Mechelen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kortrijk goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market reference | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Kortrijk | 2.70 |
| Draw | 3.51 |
| Mechelen | 2.61 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Kortrijk
| 7 Aug | A | vs Club Brugge | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Antwerp | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Charleroi | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Waregem | 0–2 | L |
Mechelen
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gent | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Standard Liege | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Westerlo | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kortrijk (Home · 4 matches) | Mechelen (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Kortrijk's home record; away stats use Mechelen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.