Kortrijk vs Charleroi — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Kortrijk
32%
Draw
28%
Charleroi
40%
pick · result
Final score
1–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Charleroi win 39.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Charleroi win. Expected goals 1.26–1.43 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–2 (8.7%), 0–1 (8.7%). It finished 1–3.
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Kortrijk
| 7 Aug | A | vs Club Brugge | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Antwerp | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Charleroi | 1–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Waregem | 0–2 | L |
Charleroi
| 9 Aug | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kortrijk (Home · 4 matches) | Charleroi (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Kortrijk's home record; away stats use Charleroi's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.