Gent head into this match in poor shape, winless in their last five with four draws and two defeats, and sitting ninth in the table. At home this season they have been relatively low-scoring and defensively solid in patches, but their BTTS rate of 50% and Over 2.5 rate of just 40% both sit notably below the league average, suggesting they can be difficult to break down while also struggling to create consistently themselves.

Genk arrive in much better nick, third in their last five on the road and occupying fourth in the standings. Their away record is the more compelling story here — a BTTS rate of 75% and Over 2.5 rate of 70% are both well clear of league norms, and they keep clean sheets away from home just 15% of the time. The recent head-to-head also favours Genk, who are unbeaten in the last two meetings.

This looks like a game where Genk's travelling threat is undervalued. Gent's struggles for form and creativity at home make it hard to see them turning the tide, and the data suggests goals are more likely than Gent's home profile alone would indicate.