Genk vs Standard Liege — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Genk
55%
Draw
24%
Standard Liege
21%
Expected goals
1.87–1.08
Genk · Standard Liege
Genk win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (9.9%), 2–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Genk win is 2–1 (9.9%).
Genk score at least twice in 56%; Standard Liege in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Standard Liege goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Genk goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Genk | 1.75 |
| Draw | 3.70 |
| Standard Liege | 4.72 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Genk
| 9 Aug | A | vs Waregem | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Westerlo | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–4 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–0 | D |
Standard Liege
| 8 Aug | H | vs Cercle Brugge | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Mechelen | 3–3 | D |
| 21 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Antwerp | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Genk (Home · 4 matches) | Standard Liege (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 4.50 |
Home stats use Genk's home record; away stats use Standard Liege's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.