Genk head into this end-of-season clash sitting fourth and with enough home quality to trouble most sides, though their recent form is patchy — two draws sandwiched around a loss before recovering last time out. Antwerp arrive on the back of back-to-back defeats after a promising three-game winning run, and their away record this term has been quietly solid defensively, keeping clean sheets at a reasonable clip and conceding just over a goal per game on the road.

The numbers here point firmly toward a low-scoring, tight affair. Antwerp's away BTTS rate of 33% sits well below the league average of 55%, and their O2.5 rate of 28% is similarly subdued compared to the league norm of 49%. Genk at home are only marginally more open, with O2.5 just 42%. The H2H offers little clarity across three evenly split meetings.

This looks tighter and lower-scoring than a home-vs-12th-place fixture might suggest. Antwerp away are harder to break down than their league position implies.