Charleroi head into this one in decent nick, winning three of their last five at home, but their recent head-to-head record against Westerlo is a concern — they have taken just one win from the last three meetings. Westerlo sit four places higher in the table and have shown resilience on the road this season, keeping a clean sheet in 41% of away games, well above the league average, which speaks to their defensive organisation away from home.

The goal data points toward a tight, low-scoring affair. Charleroi's home BTTS rate of 61% is above the league norm, but Westerlo's away BTTS of just 41% drags that expectation down considerably. With Westerlo conceding under league average on the road and Charleroi averaging only 1.4 goals per home game, the over 2.5 line looks hard to reach. The visitors look undervalued here given the H2H pattern and their superior defensive record away from Westerlo.