Charleroi head into this one in poor shape, winning just once in their last five and sitting 13th in the table. That solitary home clean sheet in roughly a quarter of their games this season tells its own story, and with an average of 1.4 goals scored and conceded at home, they are not a side that dominates domestically. The head-to-head record offers them some comfort though, with Charleroi unbeaten in the last three meetings against Genk, including a win and two draws.

Genk arrive in far better form, unbeaten in five away games, but their defensive record on the road is where this gets interesting. They have kept a clean sheet in just one of their away fixtures all season, and their BTTS rate of 88% away from home dwarfs both the league average of 54% and Charleroi's own home rate of 65%.

Goals feel almost inevitable here given Genk's away profile, and this looks tighter on the scoreline front than the league positions might suggest. The visitors are the logical side to back in terms of quality, but the data points to a competitive, open contest.