Antwerp vs Lommel — Belgian Pro League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Antwerp
52%
Draw
24%
Lommel
24%
Expected goals
1.75–1.25
Antwerp · Lommel
Antwerp win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.7%), 1–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Antwerp score at least twice in 54%; Lommel in 35%.
Scoreline distribution
Lommel goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Antwerp goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Market reference | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 24% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Antwerp | 1.86 |
| Draw | 3.89 |
| Lommel | 3.93 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Antwerp
| 9 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Genk | 4–4 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs St Truiden | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Standard Liege | 0–1 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Antwerp (Home · 5 matches) | Lommel (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 4.20 | — |
Home stats use Antwerp's home record; away stats use Lommel's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.