Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wolfsberger AC
22%
Draw
22%
Sturm Graz
56%
Expected goals
1.07–1.85
Wolfsberger AC · Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.4%), 1–2 (10.1%), 0–2 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sturm Graz win is 1–2 (10.1%).
Wolfsberger AC score at least twice in 29%; Sturm Graz in 55%.
Scoreline distribution
Sturm Graz goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wolfsberger AC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Market reference | 22% | 22% | 56% |
| Metis Forecast | 22% | 22% | 56% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 4.22 |
| Draw | 4.23 |
| Sturm Graz | 1.72 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Wolfsberger AC
| 2 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Salzburg | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Grazer AK | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sept | H | vs LASK | 1–3 | L |
Sturm Graz
| 1 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wolfsberger AC (Home · 5 matches) | Sturm Graz (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Wolfsberger AC's home record; away stats use Sturm Graz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.