Tirol vs Austria Vienna — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Tirol
36%
Draw
27%
Austria Vienna
37%
Expected goals
1.44–1.42
Tirol · Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–2 (8.9%), 2–1 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Tirol score at least twice in 42%; Austria Vienna in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Austria Vienna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Tirol goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
No recent results.
Austria Vienna
| 13 Sept | H | vs Austria Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs LASK | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tirol (Home · no matches) | Austria Vienna (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | — | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.67 |
Home stats use Tirol's home record; away stats use Austria Vienna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.