Sturm Graz vs Salzburg — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sturm Graz
31%
Draw
23%
Salzburg
46%
Expected goals
1.38–1.64
Sturm Graz · Salzburg
Salzburg win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10.7%), 1–1 (10.5%), 0–1 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sturm Graz score at least twice in 40%; Salzburg in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Salzburg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sturm Graz goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Market reference | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 23% | 46% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 3.07 |
| Draw | 4.15 |
| Salzburg | 2.08 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sturm Graz
| 1 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–3 | L |
Salzburg
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 5–1 | W |
Head to head
| 20 Sept 26 | SalzburgvsSturm Graz | 3 – 0 |
Sturm Graz: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Sturm Graz (Home · 5 matches) | Salzburg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Sturm Graz's home record; away stats use Salzburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.