Sturm Graz vs LASK — Austrian Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 30.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sturm Graz
33%
result
Draw
24%
LASK
43%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Sturm Graz win 32.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a LASK win. Expected goals 1.36–1.55 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.3%), 1–2 (9.7%), 0–1 (8.3%). It finished 2–1.
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Sturm Graz
| 1 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–3 | L |
LASK
| 29 Aug | H | vs Rheindorf Altach | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Grazer AK | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Austria Vienna | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sturm Graz (Home · 5 matches) | LASK (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Sturm Graz's home record; away stats use LASK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.