SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
SCR Altach
44%
Draw
27%
Austria Vienna
29%
Expected goals
1.43–1.22
SCR Altach · Austria Vienna
SCR Altach win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–0 (10.8%), 2–1 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely SCR Altach win is 1–0 (10.8%).
SCR Altach score at least twice in 43%; Austria Vienna in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Austria Vienna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCR Altach goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market reference | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 27% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| SCR Altach | 2.23 |
| Draw | 3.56 |
| Austria Vienna | 3.23 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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SCR Altach
| 2 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | H | vs WSG Tirol | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Sturm Graz | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs LASK | 0–3 | L |
Austria Vienna
| 13 Sept | H | vs Austria Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs LASK | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | SCR Altach (Home · 4 matches) | Austria Vienna (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 3.80 |
Home stats use SCR Altach's home record; away stats use Austria Vienna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.