Salzburg vs Sturm Graz — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Salzburg
59%
Draw
21%
Sturm Graz
19%
Expected goals
2.00–1.14
Salzburg · Sturm Graz
Salzburg win 59% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.3%), 1–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Salzburg score at least twice in 61%; Sturm Graz in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Sturm Graz goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Salzburg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Market reference | 59% | 21% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 59% | 21% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salzburg | 1.64 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.64 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 4.43 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 4.33 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.04 | 4.50 Betfair SB |
| Sturm Graz | 4.83 | 4.50 | 4.40 | 4.50 | 4.55 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.55 | 4.25 | 4.83 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Salzburg
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 5–1 | W |
Sturm Graz
| 1 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Salzburg (Home · 4 matches) | Sturm Graz (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Salzburg's home record; away stats use Sturm Graz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.