Salzburg vs Sturm Graz — Austrian Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Salzburg
62%
pick · result
Draw
20%
Sturm Graz
18%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Salzburg win 61.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Salzburg win. Expected goals 2.05–1.12 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (11.7%), 2–0 (9.3%), 1–1 (9.2%). It finished 3–0.
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Salzburg
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 5–1 | W |
Sturm Graz
| 1 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Salzburg (Home · 6 matches) | Sturm Graz (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Salzburg's home record; away stats use Sturm Graz's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.