Salzburg vs Austria Vienna — Austrian Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Salzburg
74%
pick · result
Draw
17%
Austria Vienna
9%
Final score
4–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Salzburg win 74.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Salzburg win. Expected goals 2.10–0.83 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (14.2%), 1–0 (13.8%), 2–0 (12.8%). It finished 4–1.
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Salzburg
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 5–1 | W |
Austria Vienna
| 13 Sept | H | vs Austria Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs LASK | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Salzburg (Home · 4 matches) | Austria Vienna (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Salzburg's home record; away stats use Austria Vienna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.