🇦🇹 Austrian Bundesliga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·17:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Salzburg | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| Draw | 5.07 | 5.07 |
| Austria Vienna | 8.23 | 8.23 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketSalzburg
71%
Draw
18%
Austria Vienna
11%
Salzburg 2.06 xGexpected goals0.87 xG Austria Vienna
Salzburg win 71% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (14.0%).
Salzburg score at least twice in 64%; Austria Vienna in 21%.
2–1 14.0%1–0 13.3%2–0 12.2%1–1 8.5%3–1 7.8%3–0 6.8%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Salzburg goals · columns = Austria Vienna goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Over 4.5 goals17%
Salzburg clean sheet41%
Austria Vienna clean sheet10%
Salzburg score 2+64%
Austria Vienna score 2+21%
Salzburg score 3+33%
Model vs market
| Source | Salzburg | Draw | Austria Vienna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 71% | 18% | 11% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Salzburg
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 3–0 | W |
Austria Vienna
| 2 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs LASK | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Salzburg (Home) | Austria Vienna (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Salzburg's home record; away stats use Austria Vienna's away record this season.