Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Salzburg
83%
Draw
10%
Austria Lustenau
7%
Expected goals
3.00–0.83
Salzburg · Austria Lustenau
Salzburg win 83% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.3%), 3–0 (9.9%), 2–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Salzburg score at least twice in 82%; Austria Lustenau in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Austria Lustenau goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 7.3 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Salzburg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| Market reference | 83% | 10% | 7% |
| Metis Forecast | 83% | 10% | 7% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Salzburg | 1.16 |
| Draw | 8.30 |
| Austria Lustenau | 12.38 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Salzburg
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 5–1 | W |
Austria Lustenau
| 13 Sept | A | vs Austria Vienna | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Salzburg (Home · 5 matches) | Austria Lustenau (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | — |
Home stats use Salzburg's home record; away stats use Austria Lustenau's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.