LASK vs Salzburg — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
LASK
44%
Draw
24%
Salzburg
32%
Expected goals
1.64–1.42
LASK · Salzburg
LASK win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–1 (9.7%), 1–2 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely LASK win is 2–1 (9.7%).
LASK score at least twice in 49%; Salzburg in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Salzburg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LASK goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 26% | 36% |
| Market reference | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| LASK | 2.20 |
| Draw | 3.92 |
| Salzburg | 2.94 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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LASK
| 29 Aug | H | vs Rheindorf Altach | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Grazer AK | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Austria Vienna | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 3–0 | W |
Salzburg
| 1 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs WSG Tirol | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs Rapid Vienna | 5–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | LASK (Home · 4 matches) | Salzburg (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 1.75 |
Home stats use LASK's home record; away stats use Salzburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.