Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hartberg
45%
Draw
26%
Wolfsberger AC
29%
Expected goals
1.76–1.37
Hartberg · Wolfsberger AC
Hartberg win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (8.8%), 1–2 (7.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Hartberg win is 2–1 (8.8%).
Hartberg score at least twice in 52%; Wolfsberger AC in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Wolfsberger AC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hartberg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 25% | 28% |
| Market reference | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hartberg | 2.15 |
| Draw | 3.57 |
| Wolfsberger AC | 3.27 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hartberg
| 1 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sturm Graz | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs SCR Altach | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 3–2 | W |
Wolfsberger AC
| 2 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Salzburg | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs A. Lustenau | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Grazer AK | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Sept | H | vs LASK | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hartberg (Home · 5 matches) | Wolfsberger AC (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.40 | 2.75 |
Home stats use Hartberg's home record; away stats use Wolfsberger AC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.