Hartberg vs SCR Altach — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hartberg
35%
Draw
26%
SCR Altach
39%
Expected goals
1.57–1.43
Hartberg · SCR Altach
SCR Altach win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (10.8%), 0–1 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Hartberg score at least twice in 44%; SCR Altach in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
SCR Altach goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 12.2 | 10.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hartberg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market reference | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hartberg | 2.73 |
| Draw | 3.60 |
| SCR Altach | 2.48 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hartberg
| 1 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sturm Graz | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs SCR Altach | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 3–2 | W |
SCR Altach
| 2 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Aug | H | vs WSG Tirol | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Sturm Graz | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Hartberg | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs LASK | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
| 22 Aug 26 | AltachvsHartberg | 1 – 2 |
Hartberg: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Hartberg (Home · 6 matches) | SCR Altach (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.83 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Hartberg's home record; away stats use SCR Altach's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.