Hartberg vs LASK — Austrian Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hartberg
9%
Draw
17%
result
LASK
75%
top pick
Final score
3–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 16.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a LASK win. Expected goals 0.89–2.58 against 3–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–2 (10.6%), 1–2 (10.1%), 0–3 (8.8%). It finished 3–3.
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Hartberg
| 1 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sturm Graz | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs SCR Altach | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 3–2 | W |
LASK
| 29 Aug | H | vs Rheindorf Altach | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Grazer AK | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Austria Vienna | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hartberg (Home · 6 matches) | LASK (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.83 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Hartberg's home record; away stats use LASK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.