Hartberg vs LASK — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hartberg
8%
Draw
16%
LASK
75%
Expected goals
0.87–2.58
Hartberg · LASK
LASK win 75% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (10.8%), 1–2 (10.2%), 0–3 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Hartberg score at least twice in 21%; LASK in 74%.
Scoreline distribution
LASK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 4.4 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 4.1 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hartberg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 12% | 18% | 70% |
| Market reference | 8% | 16% | 75% |
| Metis Forecast | 8% | 16% | 75% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartberg | 10.83 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.10 | 8.75 | 11.00 | 10.50 | 10.25 | 7.34 | 11.00 Betfair SB |
| Draw | 5.62 | 5.50 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 6.00 | 5.25 | 5.13 | 6.00 BetVictor |
| LASK | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.29 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hartberg
| 1 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sturm Graz | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs SCR Altach | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 3–2 | W |
LASK
| 31 Jul | H | vs Grazer AK | 3–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Austria Vienna | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs SCR Altach | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Sept | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hartberg (Home · 4 matches) | LASK (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Hartberg's home record; away stats use LASK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.