Hartberg vs Altach — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hartberg
40%
Draw
26%
Altach
34%
Expected goals
1.55–1.28
Hartberg · Altach
Hartberg win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Hartberg score at least twice in 45%; Altach in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Altach goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hartberg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market reference | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 26% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Hartberg
| 1 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Sturm Graz | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Austria Vienna | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs SCR Altach | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs SV Ried | 3–2 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hartberg (Home · 6 matches) | Altach (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.83 | — |
Home stats use Hartberg's home record; away stats use Altach's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.