Grazer AK vs Austria Vienna — Austrian Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Grazer AK
36%
top pick
Draw
28%
result
Austria Vienna
36%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 27.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Grazer AK win. Expected goals 1.27–1.27 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.3%), 1–0 (9.2%), 0–1 (9.1%). It finished 2–2.
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Grazer AK
| 31 Jul | A | vs LASK | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 0–8 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | vs SV Ried | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Wolfsberger AC | 0–0 | D |
Austria Vienna
| 13 Sept | H | vs Austria Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Wolfsberger AC | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs LASK | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Hartberg | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Salzburg | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Grazer AK (Home · 5 matches) | Austria Vienna (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Grazer AK's home record; away stats use Austria Vienna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.