Austria Lustenau vs Grazer AK — Austrian Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Austria Lustenau
35%
Draw
27%
Grazer AK
39%
Expected goals
1.45–1.43
Austria Lustenau · Grazer AK
Grazer AK win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–2 (9.9%), 0–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Austria Lustenau score at least twice in 42%; Grazer AK in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Grazer AK goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 12.5 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Austria Lustenau goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 35% | 27% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 27% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Austria Lustenau | 2.77 |
| Draw | 3.56 |
| Grazer AK | 2.47 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Austria Lustenau
| 13 Sept | A | vs Austria Vienna | 1–2 | L |
Grazer AK
| 31 Jul | A | vs LASK | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs A. Lustenau | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Rapid Vienna | 0–8 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | vs SV Ried | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Wolfsberger AC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Austria Lustenau (Home · no matches) | Grazer AK (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 4.00 |
Home stats use Austria Lustenau's home record; away stats use Grazer AK's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.