Union de Santa Fe vs Instituto — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 8 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 13.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Union de Santa Fe
44%
pick · result
Draw
30%
Instituto
26%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Union de Santa Fe win 44.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Union de Santa Fe win. Expected goals 1.32–0.95 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (12.6%), 0–0 (11.3%). It finished 3–2.
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Union de Santa Fe
| 22 Jan | H | vs Platense | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Jan | A | vs Lanus | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Feb | H | vs Gimnasia Mendoza | 4–0 | W |
| 7 Feb | A | vs Central Cordoba | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Feb | H | vs San Lorenzo | 0–0 | D |
Instituto
| 23 Jan | H | vs Velez Sarsfield | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Jan | A | vs Platense | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Lanus | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Feb | A | vs Gimnasia Mendoza | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Feb | H | vs Central Cordoba | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Union de Santa Fe (Home · 15 matches) | Instituto (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 37.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 53.3% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 37.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.73 | 2.19 |
Home stats use Union de Santa Fe's home record; away stats use Instituto's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.