Union de Santa Fe vs Independiente — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 16.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Union Santa Fe
41%
top pick
Draw
30%
Independiente
29%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Independiente win 29.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Union Santa Fe win. Expected goals 1.30–1.06 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (11.2%), 0–0 (10.4%). It finished 1–2.
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Union de Santa Fe
| 22 Jan | H | vs Platense | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Jan | A | vs Lanus | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Feb | H | vs Gimnasia Mendoza | 4–0 | W |
| 7 Feb | A | vs Central Cordoba | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Feb | H | vs San Lorenzo | 0–0 | D |
Independiente
| 23 Jan | H | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Jan | A | vs Newells Old Boys | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Jan | H | vs Velez Sarsfield | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Feb | A | vs Platense | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Lanus | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Union de Santa Fe (Home · 15 matches) | Independiente (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 53.3% | 35.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 23.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.73 | 2.29 |
Home stats use Union de Santa Fe's home record; away stats use Independiente's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.