Tigre vs Rosario Central — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 33.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Tigre
32%
Draw
32%
Rosario Central
36%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Rosario Central win 36.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rosario Central win. Expected goals 1.04–1.12 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.5%), 0–0 (12.6%), 0–1 (11.8%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Tigre
| 26 Jan | H | vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Jan | A | vs Belgrano | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Feb | H | vs Racing Club | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Feb | A | vs River Plate | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Aldosivi | 1–0 | W |
Rosario Central
| 25 Jan | H | vs Belgrano | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Jan | A | vs Racing Club | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Feb | H | vs River Plate | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Feb | A | vs Aldosivi | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Feb | H | vs Barracas Central | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Tigre (Home · 15 matches) | Rosario Central (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 46.7% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 26.7% | 47.1% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 29.4% |
| Avg goals | 1.87 | 2.35 |
Home stats use Tigre's home record; away stats use Rosario Central's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.