Sarmiento Junin vs Belgrano — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 33.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sarmiento Junin
36%
top pick
Draw
32%
result
Belgrano
33%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 31.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sarmiento Junin win. Expected goals 1.10–1.04 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.5%), 0–0 (12.9%), 1–0 (11.9%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Sarmiento Junin
| 26 Jan | A | vs Argentinos Jrs | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Jan | H | vs Banfield | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Ind. Rivadavia | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Feb | H | vs Atl. Tucuman | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Feb | A | vs Huracan | 0–1 | L |
Belgrano
| 25 Jan | A | vs Rosario Central | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Jan | H | vs Tigre | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Feb | A | vs Argentinos Jrs | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Feb | H | vs Banfield | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Feb | A | vs Ind. Rivadavia | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sarmiento Junin (Home · 16 matches) | Belgrano (Away · 19 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 56.2% | 36.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 37.5% | 26.3% |
| Clean sheet | 43.8% | 52.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 1.74 |
Home stats use Sarmiento Junin's home record; away stats use Belgrano's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.