San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 9.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
San Lorenzo
26%
Draw
31%
Boca Juniors
42%
pick · result
Final score
0–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Boca Juniors win 42.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Boca Juniors win. Expected goals 0.90–1.21 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.3%), 0–1 (13.5%), 0–0 (13.1%). It finished 0–2.
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San Lorenzo
| 23 Jan | H | vs Lanus | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Jan | A | vs Gimnasia Mendoza | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jan | H | vs Central Cordoba | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Feb | A | vs Huracan | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Feb | A | vs Union de Santa Fe | 0–0 | D |
Boca Juniors
| 5 Sept | A | vs Gimnasia M. | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Jan | H | vs Dep. Riestra | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Jan | A | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Feb | H | vs Newells Old Boys | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Feb | A | vs Velez Sarsfield | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | San Lorenzo (Home · 15 matches) | Boca Juniors (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 26.7% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 37.5% |
| Avg goals | 1.93 | 2.62 |
Home stats use San Lorenzo's home record; away stats use Boca Juniors's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.