Racing Club vs Sarmiento Junin — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 20.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Racing Club
56%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Sarmiento Junin
18%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Racing Club win 55.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Racing Club win. Expected goals 1.60–0.80 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.6%), 1–1 (12.5%), 2–0 (11.6%). It finished 3–1.
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Recent form
Racing Club
| 24 Jan | A | vs Gimnasia L.P. | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Jan | H | vs Rosario Central | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Feb | A | vs Tigre | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Feb | H | vs Argentinos Jrs | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Feb | A | vs Banfield | 2–0 | W |
Sarmiento Junin
| 26 Jan | A | vs Argentinos Jrs | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Jan | H | vs Banfield | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Ind. Rivadavia | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Feb | H | vs Atl. Tucuman | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Feb | A | vs Huracan | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Racing Club (Home · 16 matches) | Sarmiento Junin (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 68.8% | 53.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 43.8% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 12.5% | 6.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.38 | 2.87 |
Home stats use Racing Club's home record; away stats use Sarmiento Junin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.