Lanus vs Estudiantes L.P. — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 16.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lanus
39%
pick · result
Draw
31%
Estudiantes L.P.
29%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lanus win 39.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lanus win. Expected goals 1.18–0.99 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–0 (12.5%), 1–0 (12.4%). It finished 2–1.
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Lanus
| 23 Jan | A | vs San Lorenzo | 3–2 | W |
| 29 Jan | H | vs Union de Santa Fe | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Instituto | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Feb | H | vs Talleres Cordoba | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | A | vs Independiente | 0–2 | L |
Estudiantes L.P.
| 23 Jan | A | vs Independiente | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Jan | H | vs Boca Juniors | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Feb | A | vs Defensa y Justicia | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Feb | H | vs Dep. Riestra | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Feb | A | vs Gimnasia L.P. | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lanus (Home · 16 matches) | Estudiantes L.P. (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 37.5% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 31.2% | 26.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 1.88 | 1.87 |
Home stats use Lanus's home record; away stats use Estudiantes L.P.'s away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.