Independiente vs San Lorenzo — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 37.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Independiente
46%
top pick
Draw
31%
result
San Lorenzo
23%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 31.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Independiente win. Expected goals 1.27–0.82 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (14.7%), 1–1 (13.9%), 0–0 (13.4%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Independiente
| 23 Jan | H | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Jan | A | vs Newells Old Boys | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Jan | H | vs Velez Sarsfield | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Feb | A | vs Platense | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Lanus | 2–0 | W |
San Lorenzo
| 23 Jan | H | vs Lanus | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Jan | A | vs Gimnasia Mendoza | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jan | H | vs Central Cordoba | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Feb | A | vs Huracan | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Feb | A | vs Union de Santa Fe | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Independiente (Home · 15 matches) | San Lorenzo (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 46.7% | 35.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 17.6% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.47 | 1.41 |
Home stats use Independiente's home record; away stats use San Lorenzo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.