Gimnasia Mendoza vs Dep. Riestra — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 81.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gimnasia Mendoza
41%
top pick
Draw
32%
result
Dep. Riestra
27%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 31.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Gimnasia Mendoza win. Expected goals 1.19–0.90 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.3%), 1–0 (13.6%), 0–0 (13.4%). It finished 0–0 — one of them.
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Gimnasia Mendoza
| 23 Jan | A | vs Central Cordoba | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Jan | H | vs San Lorenzo | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Feb | A | vs Union de Santa Fe | 0–4 | L |
| 9 Feb | H | vs Instituto | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Feb | A | vs Talleres Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
Dep. Riestra
| 25 Jan | A | vs Boca Juniors | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Jan | H | vs Defensa y Justicia | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Feb | A | vs Barracas Central | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Feb | A | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Feb | H | vs Newells Old Boys | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gimnasia Mendoza (Home · 15 matches) | Dep. Riestra (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 46.7% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 6.7% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 26.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.13 | 1.20 |
Home stats use Gimnasia Mendoza's home record; away stats use Dep. Riestra's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.