Gimnasia Mendoza vs Boca Juniors — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 16.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gimnasia Mendoza
33%
Draw
31%
result
Boca Juniors
37%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 30.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Boca Juniors win. Expected goals 1.10–1.18 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.3%), 0–0 (11.3%), 0–1 (11.0%). It finished 2–2.
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Gimnasia Mendoza
| 23 Jan | A | vs Central Cordoba | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Jan | H | vs San Lorenzo | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Feb | A | vs Union de Santa Fe | 0–4 | L |
| 9 Feb | H | vs Instituto | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Feb | A | vs Talleres Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
Boca Juniors
| 5 Sept | A | vs Gimnasia M. | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Jan | H | vs Dep. Riestra | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Jan | A | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Feb | H | vs Newells Old Boys | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Feb | A | vs Velez Sarsfield | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gimnasia Mendoza (Home · 15 matches) | Boca Juniors (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 46.7% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 37.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.13 | 2.62 |
Home stats use Gimnasia Mendoza's home record; away stats use Boca Juniors's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.