Gimnasia L.P. vs Tigre — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 9.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Gimnasia L.P.
37%
pick · result
Draw
31%
Tigre
32%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Gimnasia L.P. win 36.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Gimnasia L.P. win. Expected goals 1.16–1.07 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–0 (11.8%), 1–0 (11.4%). It finished 2–1.
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Recent form
Gimnasia L.P.
| 24 Jan | H | vs Racing Club | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Jan | A | vs River Plate | 0–2 | L |
| 2 Feb | H | vs Aldosivi | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Feb | A | vs Barracas Central | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Feb | H | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 0–0 | D |
Tigre
| 26 Jan | H | vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Jan | A | vs Belgrano | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Feb | H | vs Racing Club | 3–1 | W |
| 7 Feb | A | vs River Plate | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Aldosivi | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Gimnasia L.P. (Home · 16 matches) | Tigre (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 56.2% | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Clean sheet | 37.5% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.69 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Gimnasia L.P.'s home record; away stats use Tigre's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.