Estudiantes Rio Cuarto vs Sarmiento Junin — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 20.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
47%
top pick
Draw
30%
Sarmiento Junin
23%
result
Final score
0–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Sarmiento Junin win 23.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto win. Expected goals 1.38–0.88 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–0 (13.4%), 0–0 (11.4%). It finished 0–2.
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Estudiantes Rio Cuarto
| 26 Jan | A | vs Tigre | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Jan | H | vs Argentinos Jrs | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Feb | A | vs Banfield | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Feb | H | vs Ind. Rivadavia | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Feb | A | vs Atl. Tucuman | 0–4 | L |
Sarmiento Junin
| 26 Jan | A | vs Argentinos Jrs | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Jan | H | vs Banfield | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Ind. Rivadavia | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Feb | H | vs Atl. Tucuman | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Feb | A | vs Huracan | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto (Home · 16 matches) | Sarmiento Junin (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 31.2% | 53.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 31.2% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 6.7% |
| Avg goals | 1.69 | 2.87 |
Home stats use Estudiantes Rio Cuarto's home record; away stats use Sarmiento Junin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.