Dep. Riestra vs Lanus — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 13.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Dep. Riestra
39%
top pick
Draw
32%
Lanus
29%
result
Final score
0–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Lanus win 28.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Dep. Riestra win. Expected goals 1.15–0.94 against 0–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–0 (13.5%), 1–0 (13.2%). It finished 0–3.
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Dep. Riestra
| 25 Jan | A | vs Boca Juniors | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Jan | H | vs Defensa y Justicia | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Feb | A | vs Barracas Central | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Feb | A | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Feb | H | vs Newells Old Boys | 1–1 | D |
Lanus
| 23 Jan | A | vs San Lorenzo | 3–2 | W |
| 29 Jan | H | vs Union de Santa Fe | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Instituto | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Feb | H | vs Talleres Cordoba | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | A | vs Independiente | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Dep. Riestra (Home · 16 matches) | Lanus (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 31.2% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 18.8% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 37.5% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 1.62 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Dep. Riestra's home record; away stats use Lanus's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.