Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia Mendoza — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 115.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Defensa y Justicia
47%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Gimnasia Mendoza
24%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Defensa y Justicia win 46.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Defensa y Justicia win. Expected goals 1.39–0.92 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–0 (12.7%), 0–0 (10.9%). It finished 2–0.
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Defensa y Justicia
| 22 Jan | A | vs Aldosivi | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Jan | A | vs Dep. Riestra | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Feb | H | vs Estudiantes L.P. | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Feb | A | vs Newells Old Boys | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Feb | H | vs Velez Sarsfield | 1–1 | D |
Gimnasia Mendoza
| 23 Jan | A | vs Central Cordoba | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Jan | H | vs San Lorenzo | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Feb | A | vs Union de Santa Fe | 0–4 | L |
| 9 Feb | H | vs Instituto | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Feb | A | vs Talleres Cordoba | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Defensa y Justicia (Home · 16 matches) | Gimnasia Mendoza (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 56.2% | 37.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 31.2% | 37.5% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 18.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.12 | 2.31 |
Home stats use Defensa y Justicia's home record; away stats use Gimnasia Mendoza's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.