Aldosivi vs Atl. Tucuman — Argentine Primera result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 21 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 9.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Aldosivi
28%
result
Draw
31%
Atl. Tucuman
40%
top pick
Final score
1–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Aldosivi win 28.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atl. Tucuman win. Expected goals 0.97–1.21 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.3%), 0–1 (12.7%), 0–0 (12.4%). It finished 1–0.
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Aldosivi
| 22 Jan | H | vs Defensa y Justicia | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Jan | H | vs Barracas Central | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Feb | A | vs Gimnasia L.P. | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Feb | H | vs Rosario Central | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Tigre | 0–1 | L |
Atl. Tucuman
| 24 Jan | A | vs Ind. Rivadavia | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Jan | H | vs Central Cordoba | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Feb | H | vs Huracan | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Feb | A | vs Sarmiento Junin | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Feb | H | vs Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aldosivi (Home · 16 matches) | Atl. Tucuman (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 43.8% | 53.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 46.7% |
| Clean sheet | 43.8% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 1.69 | 2.07 |
Home stats use Aldosivi's home record; away stats use Atl. Tucuman's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.