VPS vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 31 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
VPS
45%
top pick
Draw
26%
Lahti
28%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Lahti win 28.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a VPS win. Expected goals 1.54–1.21 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.5%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–0 (9.5%). It finished 0–1.
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VPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Jaro | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 3–2 | W |
| 2 May | A | vs Mariehamn | 1–0 | W |
Lahti
| 4 Apr | A | vs Jaro | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Apr | A | vs TPS | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs Inter Turku | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 2–1 | W |
| 4 May | A | vs HJK | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | VPS (Home · 13 matches) | Lahti (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 46.2% | 41.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 38.5% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 30.8% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.46 | 1.83 |
Home stats use VPS's home record; away stats use Lahti's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.