🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga·Monday, 31 August 2026·16:00

VPS

LLWLW

16:00

5th vs 8th

Lahti

LWDLW

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
VPS	2.12	2.12
Draw	3.58	3.58
Lahti	3.34	3.34

Metis Forecast

model + market

VPS

45%

Draw

26%

Lahti

28%

VPS 1.60 xGexpected goals1.22 xG Lahti

VPS win 45% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 57% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.5%).

VPS score at least twice in 48%; Lahti in 35%.

1–1 12.5%2–1 9.3%1–0 8.6%2–0 7.6%1–2 7.1%0–0 6.8%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	6.8	6.4	4.5	1.8	0.6	0.2
1	8.6	12.5	7.1	2.9	0.9	0.3
2	7.6	9.3	5.6	2.3	0.7	0.2
3	4.1	5.0	3.0	1.2	0.4	0.1
4	1.6	2.0	1.2	0.5	0.1	0.0
5+	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

rows = VPS goals · columns = Lahti goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score57%

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Over 4.5 goals16%

VPS clean sheet29%

Lahti clean sheet20%

VPS score 2+48%

Lahti score 2+35%

VPS score 3+22%

Model vs market

Source	VPS	Draw	Lahti
Raw Metis model	45%	27%	28%
Market (de-vigged)	45%	26%	28%
Metis Forecast	45%	26%	28%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

VPS

4 Apr	A	vs Inter Turku	0–0	D
10 Apr	H	vs Jaro	0–0	D
18 Apr	A	vs AC Oulu	0–1	L
24 Apr	H	vs Ilves	3–2	W
2 May	A	vs Mariehamn	1–0	W

Lahti

4 Apr	A	vs Jaro	1–0	W
10 Apr	A	vs TPS	1–2	L
18 Apr	H	vs Inter Turku	0–2	L
25 Apr	H	vs AC Oulu	2–1	W
4 May	A	vs HJK	0–1	L

Head to head

18 May 26

LahtivsVPS

1 – 1

VPS: 0W 1D 0L in last 1

Model context

Stat	VPS (Home)	Lahti (Away)
BTTS rate	60.0%	40.0%
Over 2.5 rate	50.0%	30.0%
Clean sheet	30.0%	30.0%
Avg goals	2.80	1.70

Home stats use VPS's home record; away stats use Lahti's away record this season.

VPS →Lahti →🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga standings & fixtures