VPS vs KuPS — Veikkausliiga forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
VPS
30%
Draw
27%
KuPS
43%
Expected goals
1.13–1.41
VPS · KuPS
KuPS win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 0–1 (10.2%), 1–2 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely KuPS win is 0–1 (10.2%).
VPS score at least twice in 31%; KuPS in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
KuPS goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VPS goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Market reference | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 27% | 43% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VPS | 3.18 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.11 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.08 | 2.97 | 3.18 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.32 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.08 | 3.55 Pinnacle |
| KuPS | 2.28 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.24 | 2.25 | 2.15 | 2.20 | 2.21 | 2.05 | 2.28 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
VPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Jaro | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 3–2 | W |
| 2 May | A | vs Mariehamn | 1–0 | W |
KuPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Ilves | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Gnistan | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Jaro | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Apr | H | vs HJK | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 25 Jul 26 | KuPSvsVPS | 3 – 1 |
| 13 Jun 26 | VPSvsKuPS | 1 – 1 |
VPS: 0W 1D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | VPS (Home · 13 matches) | KuPS (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 38.5% | 30.8% |
| Clean sheet | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.46 | 2.31 |
Home stats use VPS's home record; away stats use KuPS's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.