VPS vs Inter Turku — Veikkausliiga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
VPS
19%
Draw
25%
Inter Turku
56%
Expected goals
0.92–1.61
VPS · Inter Turku
Inter Turku win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13.8%), 1–1 (11.7%), 1–2 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
VPS score at least twice in 23%; Inter Turku in 49%.
Scoreline distribution
Inter Turku goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.8 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VPS goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Market reference | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| Metis Forecast | 19% | 25% | 56% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| VPS | 4.82 |
| Draw | 3.80 |
| Inter Turku | 1.71 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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VPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Jaro | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 3–2 | W |
| 2 May | A | vs Mariehamn | 1–0 | W |
Inter Turku
| 4 Apr | H | vs VPS | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Lahti | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Apr | H | vs Mariehamn | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Apr | H | vs HJK | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 14 Sept 26 | Inter TurkuvsVPS | 1 – 0 |
| 2 Aug 26 | VPSvsInter Turku | 0 – 1 |
| 4 Apr 26 | Inter TurkuvsVPS | 0 – 0 |
VPS: 0W 1D 2L in last 3
Model context
| Stat | VPS (Home · 14 matches) | Inter Turku (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.9% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 35.7% | 35.7% |
| Clean sheet | 35.7% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.36 | 2.29 |
Home stats use VPS's home record; away stats use Inter Turku's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.