Both sides arrive at this fixture in poor form, with VPS picking up back-to-back draws and Ilves suffering consecutive defeats. Neither team will be brimming with confidence, and with no previous meetings to draw on, there is genuine uncertainty about how this one plays out.

The underlying numbers tell an interesting story. VPS have been remarkably difficult to score against at home this season, keeping clean sheets in every home match with a goals-scored average of zero — well below the league norm. Ilves away, by contrast, have been involved in open, high-scoring games, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals landing in all their away fixtures. Those two profiles are in direct conflict here, which makes the goals angle genuinely hard to call.

This looks tighter than a straightforward read of the standings might suggest. The data points to a low-scoring, competitive affair, with VPS's defensive solidity at home likely to be the defining factor.