VPS vs Gnistan — Veikkausliiga forecast, Monday, 12 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
VPS
40%
Draw
27%
Gnistan
33%
Expected goals
1.42–1.26
VPS · Gnistan
VPS win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.7%), 1–0 (8.8%), 2–1 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
VPS score at least twice in 41%; Gnistan in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Gnistan goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: VPS goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Market reference | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 27% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| VPS | 2.40 |
| Draw | 3.55 |
| Gnistan | 2.85 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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VPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Jaro | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 3–2 | W |
| 2 May | A | vs Mariehamn | 1–0 | W |
Gnistan
| 4 Apr | H | vs AC Oulu | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | vs HJK | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Apr | A | vs TPS | 1–1 | D |
| 5 May | H | vs Inter Turku | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 27 Jun 26 | GnistanvsVPS | 1 – 1 |
| 9 May 26 | VPSvsGnistan | 1 – 1 |
VPS: 0W 2D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | VPS (Home · 13 matches) | Gnistan (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 46.2% | 58.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 38.5% | 41.7% |
| Clean sheet | 30.8% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.46 | 2.50 |
Home stats use VPS's home record; away stats use Gnistan's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.