VPS vs AC Oulu — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 8 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 27.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
VPS
47%
pick · result
Draw
27%
AC Oulu
26%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a VPS win 46.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a VPS win. Expected goals 1.53–1.10 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (10.2%), 2–1 (9.5%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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VPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Jaro | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Apr | A | vs AC Oulu | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Ilves | 3–2 | W |
| 2 May | A | vs Mariehamn | 1–0 | W |
AC Oulu
| 4 Apr | A | vs Gnistan | 5–1 | W |
| 11 Apr | A | vs HJK | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs VPS | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Apr | A | vs KuPS | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Apr | A | vs Lahti | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | VPS (Home · 16 matches) | AC Oulu (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 37.5% | 46.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 37.5% | 46.7% |
| Clean sheet | 31.2% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.38 | 2.73 |
Home stats use VPS's home record; away stats use AC Oulu's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.