TPS vs Ilves — Veikkausliiga forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
TPS
37%
Draw
26%
Ilves
37%
Expected goals
1.42–1.39
TPS · Ilves
Ilves win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
TPS score at least twice in 41%; Ilves in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Ilves goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: TPS goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market reference | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 26% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPS | 2.63 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.59 | 2.60 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.59 | 2.41 | 2.63 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.54 | 3.45 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.54 | 3.18 | 3.74 Pinnacle |
| Ilves | 2.59 | 2.45 | 2.50 | 2.46 | 2.52 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2.46 | 2.37 | 2.59 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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TPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Mariehamn | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Lahti | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs SJK | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Gnistan | 1–1 | D |
| 2 May | A | vs Jaro | 2–2 | D |
Ilves
| 4 Apr | H | vs KuPS | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Mariehamn | 2–2 | D |
| 24 Apr | A | vs VPS | 2–3 | L |
| 2 May | A | vs SJK | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 20 Jul 26 | TPSvsIlves | 1 – 3 |
| 13 Jun 26 | IlvesvsTPS | 1 – 0 |
TPS: 0W 0D 2L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | TPS (Home · 13 matches) | Ilves (Away · 12 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 38.5% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 53.8% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 53.8% | 8.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.31 | 3.83 |
Home stats use TPS's home record; away stats use Ilves's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.