TPS vs Ilves — Veikkausliiga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
TPS
37%
Draw
26%
Ilves
37%
pick · result
Final score
0–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Ilves win 37.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Ilves win. Expected goals 1.42–1.39 against 0–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.1%). It finished 0–3.
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TPS
| 4 Apr | A | vs Mariehamn | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Apr | H | vs Lahti | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Apr | H | vs SJK | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Apr | H | vs Gnistan | 1–1 | D |
| 2 May | A | vs Jaro | 2–2 | D |
Ilves
| 4 Apr | H | vs KuPS | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | vs Inter Turku | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Apr | A | vs Mariehamn | 2–2 | D |
| 24 Apr | A | vs VPS | 2–3 | L |
| 2 May | A | vs SJK | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | TPS (Home · 14 matches) | Ilves (Away · 13 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 35.7% | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 76.9% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 7.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.21 | 3.69 |
Home stats use TPS's home record; away stats use Ilves's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.