SJK come into this in inconsistent form, winning just one of their last three, but their home record this season has been remarkable in a specific way — they have kept a clean sheet in every home game, averaging three goals scored with none conceded. That is a stark outlier compared to the league average and points to a side that is genuinely dominant on their own patch, even if their overall form is patchy.

Ilves arrive in poor shape, winless in their last three away trips, and their away record tells a different story to SJK's home dominance. They have conceded in every away game this season, averaging two goals against per match, while also scoring, meaning BTTS has landed in all of their away fixtures — well above the league norm of 42%.

There is a tension in the data here. SJK's home clean sheet record and Ilves' tendency to score away makes this an interesting matchup. The hosts look strong favourites, but Ilves finding the net looks plausible given the pattern on both sides.